The IRA has finally renounced all violence in the struggle for North Irish independence. Is it just a fluke, or have Islamic fundamentalists made political violence less useful? By Ravindran Alfreds
From September 2005
The Irish Republican Army’s (IRA) decision to stop all violence will justifiably bring a sense of relief to Northern Ireland. The troubled province has lived for too long under the shadow of sectarian violence. Though London now faces a new threat from homegrown fundamentalists, there is cause for celebration as one of the world’s longest-running conflicts seems ready to end.
The IRA’s decision was not made out of simple altruism, but from a careful consideration of the interests of the independence movement.
The recent wave of fundamentalist terrorism, including far more devastating attacks than the IRA ever planned, has made IRA violence far less useful. Small-scale attacks no longer attract major media attention and are ineffective at striking fear into populations worried about al Qaeda. At the same time, the use of political violence has become less acceptable.
In the 1970s and ’80s, terrorism was mainly secular in nature and limited to acts of inconvenience to gain world attention. Terrorist groups themselves were either separatist movements or organizations that were clients in proxy wars between two contrasting ideologies. Groups such as Baider Meinhoff and the Red Workers Faction confined their actions to aircraft hijackings or bomb threats. The line between terrorists and freedom fighters was blurry at best.
However, the horrific acts on September 11th, 2001 followed by the sudden proliferation of fundamentalist terrorism worldwide, has led to a worldwide shift in attitudes toward terrorism. Every country has suddenly become both a target and a potential breeding ground for such terrorism. Such are the dynamics of the world today. The bottom line is that terrorism, no matter what the cause, is unfashionable.
The IRA’s decision is also due in part to the brutal slaying of a fellow Catholic Irishman, Robert McCarthy, by IRA members in February. By failing to condemn the attacks or bring the killers to justice, the IRA isolated itself from mainstream society, including many former supporters. American Irish Catholics promptly distanced themselves from the IRA. On St Patrick’s Day, when the group’s leaders are normally welcomed to the White House, the President spoke with Robert McCarthy’s family instead. America’s attitudes toward the IRA, and past willingness to overlook political violence, were beginning to change.
The same logic behind the IRA’s recent diplomatic gestures may also influence other separatist movements. Another long-simmering conflict, between the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Elam (LTTE) and the Sri Lankan government, may also be ready to come to a close.
Formed in 1976, the LTTE has had one goal: the formation of the ethnic Tamil state of Elam on the northern part of the island of Sri Lanka. Despite years of war, death and destruction, the Tamil Tigers find themselves no closer to that goal than they were when they first started.
The Tigers have benefitted from a positive international image, especially in light of the December 26th 2004 tsunami that affected many areas under guerilla control. But it is possible that the Tigers have exhausted international goodwill with the recent slaying of Sri Lankan Foreign Minister Lakshman Kadirgamar, himself an ethnic Tamil.
Kadirgamar was the foreign minister that advocated peace between the majority Singhalese-led government and the separatist Tamil Tigers rebels. Coming from the ethnic minority he seemed to be Sri Lanka’s best chance of peace, especially with his ties to the government. A major proponent of Norwegian mediation of the conflict, he was at the forefront of peace efforts.
There is no evidence linking the Tamil Tigers directly to the assassination, and the Tigers themselves have denied their involvement as a group. However, it is likely some members of the group were involved, especially since Mr Kadirgamar had campaigned for Tigers to be outlawed in several countries. Furthermore, the Tigers themselves have a history of assassinating Tamil politicians in an attempt to become the one voice of the Tamil people.
Like the IRA, the Tigers find themselves in a difficult position. They rely on active overseas support, with members of the Tamil Diaspora from Australia to Canada instrumental in supporting the LTTE, financially as well as in other ways. Yet this support is also a weakness, as intra-Tamil violence and the futility of terror attacks bring an increasing consensus in favor of peace and negotiation.
Thus, like the IRA, the Tigers find themselves at a major crossroads. In today’s geopolitical environment, freedom fighters that engage in acts of terror are no longer accorded the tolerance they once received. At the same time, their small attacks are hardly effective at raising international awareness in a world afraid of nuclear-armed international terrorists.
Like the IRA, the LTTE will soon find violence ineffective and counter-productive. The group must act quickly to seek peace and international negotiation, or risk standing alone.
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